Roland Berger projects $750 billion humanoid market by 2035
Roland Berger has put a large number on industrial humanoid robotics: the consultancy says robot manufacturers could generate $300 billion in revenue by 2035, rising to $750 billion in an optimistic scenario, according to Consultancy.uk’s account of the study.
The long term estimate is larger still. Roland Berger argues the market could reach up to $4 trillion, a size it compares with the automotive industry. This humanoid market forecast is ambitious, and the source itself treats some of the value chain assumptions as speculative.
Costs assume software and safety catch up
Central to Roland Berger’s case is the claim that advances in AI and robotics hardware could eventually bring humanoid running costs to around two US dollars per hour. In the firm’s phrasing, that would make humanoids a lever for high wage countries facing skilled labour shortages. Consultancy.uk notes that critics may read the same argument as a pressure on wages.
Roland Berger also sees revenue beyond the complete robot. The study points to motors, mechanics, sensors, electronics and production equipment as part of a broader value chain that can draw on existing industrial capabilities. The firm still acknowledges that humanoid robots are not ready for fully autonomous production tasks at broad scale.
Initial use cases stay narrow
According to the study, early value is expected in clearly defined, repetitive applications such as unpacking or transporting items. Wider task coverage depends on software maturity, durability, safety and liability. Regulation is another gating factor because existing safety standards were designed around traditional, fenced off automation, while humanoid robots work in shared and dynamic spaces with people.
“The key question is no longer whether humanoid robots will emerge as a viable technology, but how quickly they will scale and which companies position themselves early enough to capture the opportunity,”Damien Dujacquier, managing partner at Roland Berger
The deployment evidence is thinner than the forecast
The strongest reading of the report is that humanoid robotics could become a large manufacturing and components market if several hard problems are solved. The weaker reading is that the headline totals depend on software, safety approval and real site performance that are still immature.
Consultancy.uk adds a cautionary parallel from Japanese elder care. By 2018, Japan’s national government had spent well in excess of $300 million on research and development for humanoid robots to care for elderly people. A survey of more than 9,000 elder care institutions found that in 2019 only about 10% had introduced any care robot, while a 2021 study of 444 home care providers found only 2% had experience with a care robot.
The industrial case is different from elder care, but the implementation burden is relevant. Robots that work around people need to be moved, cleaned, booted, operated, updated, explained and monitored. For humanoid deployments, hourly operating cost will not be the only number that determines whether the system pays for itself.
Source: consultancy.uk
