Morgan Stanley Sees 5 trillion USD Humanoid Market by 2050
Morgan Stanley’s new “Global Humanoid Model” puts a $4.7 trillion annual revenue target on humanoid-robot hardware by 2050—roughly twice the 2024 sales of the top twenty carmakers. Add software, data and services and the addressable market reaches $5 trillion. The bank also foresees more than one billion humanoids on duty worldwide, creating a labour force rivaling India’s working-age population.
Roll-out will be gradual, not explosive. Morgan Stanley expects about 13 million units in service by 2035, mostly in factories and warehouses. Falling prices will drive adoption: selling prices may drop from $200 000 today to $50 000 in rich countries by mid-century—and to $15 000 where Chinese supply chains dominate. As G7 and Chinese workforces age, humanoids shift from futuristic prototypes to practical necessities. Investing.com
To steer capital, the report introduces the “Humanoid 100,” a map of one hundred publicly listed enablers. Brains covers AI compute, foundation models and simulators—Nvidia, Google, Microsoft and Amazon lead here. Bodies refers to the electro-mechanical stack: sensors, batteries and precision actuators supplied by firms such as Harmonic Drive, Nabtesco, Nidec and Rockwell Automation. Integrators fuse both layers into finished robots; Tesla’s Optimus, Figure 01 and Agility’s Digit already have pilots under way and showcase general-purpose manipulation and mobility.
Geography may decide the balance of power. Morgan Stanley notes Chinese vendors already price many key components at roughly one-third Western cost, positioning China as a manufacturing hub even as the U.S. and Europe retain an edge in AI software and systems integration. The dynamic mirrors the smartphone era and raises new questions about supply-chain resilience and data sovereignty once humanoids enter sensitive sectors.Morgan Stanley
Investment lens
- 2025-30: Accumulate “picks and shovels” with current cash flow—edge GPUs, force-torque sensors and physics-based simulators.
- 2030-40: Back integrators that control the full stack; platform leaders could earn smartphone-like margins once fleets top 100 000 units. Tesla and Figure AI look best placed.
- 2040-50: Services may overtake hardware. Expect skill stores, predictive-maintenance SaaS, leasing and insurance wrapped around robot fleets.
Humanoids are moving from cinematic cameo to capital-markets reality. Morgan Stanley’s $5 trillion headline crystallizes the scale of the prize; diversified exposure across the brain-body-integrator stack—tempered by vigilance on policy, ethics and supply-chain risk—looks the prudent way to play the rise of human-shaped machines.
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